Because I have a feeling October 5 is going to take a looonngg time to come around  ;)

If you've read any recent topics you've probably already seen my insatiable impatience, but lets just keep a track of where the downloads are at vaguely, I guess out of interest and so I don't have to keep checking my inbox every 5 minutes when we aren't even on May yet

Looking through quickly latest I can see is March 9th

I ordered April 9th, but the Mail is still not here... but i think it won't take very long by now.

I ordered on 24th March, but nothing yet. I'm getting quite excited though! :-) Will post again when it arrives (if it gets here before I go to bed in the next 3 hours - I'm in the UK)

Mine just arrived (24th March). Hope everyone else gets their copy soon :-)

Thanks dude... I'm in October though, so I guess it's going to be tomorrow at the earliest.
Enjoy the game.

Hmmm thats okish... its taken 3 hours to get from 9th of March at 10am to the 24th of March at 1pm

Three hours to do 23 days

meaning 600 people seeing as, apparently, the email does 200 an hour

hopefully the amount of people will decrease from the launch of the pre-order, but then will probably rise again as its reaches the full release.




Everything I say from this point on is a monster estimate and probably doesn't represent the truth in any way.
but I can't think of a better way to do it and I'm bored and want WoG :(




Downloads (pretty unreliable)

If we pretend the above data is the 'average' data (unlikely) then we can work out:

- the bot does a day in (180 minutes/23)7.8 minutes
- if we then take 30 days as roughly the number of days in every month then a month takes (7.8*30)234 minutes or almost 4 hours
- If we then assume the emailer is at the end of march at this time (about 2pm 7th October on the forums time, 10pm in England) then we have roughly 6.5 months left of emails to get through
- and therefore (234*6.5)1521 minutes before the emailer reaches the end of the email list or 25.35 hours
- I think this is perhaps a slightly high estimate as a large amount of pre-orders will be in February and March due to the IGF awards (apparently)(although this depends how many will be at the very end of the pre-order period - probably a lot)
- Chances are(going by the roughest guesswork ever)that anybody who ordered before October will have the download link within 24 hours time. People who are in october could get theirs anywhere between 24 hours and 30 hours time depending on how many people chose to pre-order last minute like me. Obviously the downloads will speed up in the months where there was little news and slow down again in October.
- If 2D-Boy start emailing at a faster rate this figure will obviously decrease massively



Pre-orders (very unreliable)

If we assume people ordered on average at the above rate aswell it means that:

- 600 people ordered in 23 days
- 26 people ordered a day
- (7.5(roughly the number of months pre-order has been open)*30 days in a month*26 orders a day) makes a total of 5850 pre-orders



Revenue (the extreme of unreliable)

Also as an unreliable guesstimate on average 2D Boy made a revenue of:
20*600= $12,000 in 23 days
12,000/23 = roughly $500 revenue a day from 9th March to 24 March

If you're considering this in terms of their personel gain bear in mind that:
- Preorders is no way to judge the success of the final product and how much money 2D-Boy will make
- Some versions of the game will go on sale for different amounts
- They also would have to pay costs (e.g. for the website, depreciation, equipment etc)
- They would need to save up for distribution and advertising
- That this is apparently one of the peak ordering periods due to IGF awards
- That they (and maybe familys I don't know?) also need to live on this money
- To take the guessing and random figures even further:If they stay at that figure (which they won't, it could go anywhere from the launch, hopefully up)they'll make about $180,000 in revenue a year probably more, but ignoring costs. So it's probably not all that much altogether, though perhaps a fair amount for a games programmer I'm not sure?
- So in conclusion this guess is probably no representation of anything

April 9

got my link now. :)
hope you others get yours soon. We'll meet then in the corporation... ;)

Going by the same maths used before the time from 24th March to April 9 is 15 days in 90 minutes, faster than before when it was 15 days in 120 minutes

If my guesses are correct the emails are speeding up pretty fast or more than 200 emails are being sent an hour... or my guess was totally wrong

Hooray  ;D

thanks HexagonalBolts! that's a lot of math, you helped us all ;)

...so since I ordered on september it means I'm gonna have WoG around tomorrow afternoon.... TT-TT still a long wait... But nevertheless I have a feeling it's worth the wait, I haven't been so eager waiting for a game since Valve released Orange Box ;)

Hahah well lets hope so!

I bought on the last day possible in October and live in the UK so I'll probably get it at midnight tommorow or a few hours after... so no chance to play it for at least another two days, boohoo :(

I ordered 2 copies on the 25-26th of April.. Judging from the logic I should get it within an hour or so.... Awwww, I want to sleep, but I soooo want to play it!!! :)

lol, I just got my mail :)
Thanks 2D Boy!!!

just got my second mail now..

---------------------
for the math lovers out there ^^

Time between pre-orders (based on mail history): 43 hours.
Time between download messages: 12 minutes

if the bot does 200 messages an hour, that means that it would do 33.3 messages in 10 minutes...
With this I can say that there were about 18-19 people pre-ordering the game each day in the end of april ^^

P.S. If someone's wondering why I'm doing this math instead of downloading - I'm still waiting for the download to finish, so I've got some 30 minutes of highly "reactively-anticipated" time (not sure what that means anymore.. need.. to.. stay.. awake... >_< )

I ordered mine 9 of September and got my link at 5:30 PM (WoG time)
Yaay!!!
It means the Mail Bot is sending mails faster now :D (or that much less people pre-ordered the game between June and August than estimated by HexagonalBolts )
I can't wait to play it :3 6% so far, 30 minutes to goo!

I finally got my link! Although I already had the game thanks to a friend :P

I got my link too.
Thanks a lot 2DBoy(s) !!!
:)

Got my download!!!! Meaning all download mails should now be sent my calculations were totally totally wack or the mails were being sent faster, which makes me happy either way :D

[quote author=Flexer link=topic=231.msg1989#msg1989 date=1223418728]
if the bot does 200 messages an hour, that means that it would do 33.3 messages in 10 minutes...
With this I can say that there were about 18-19 people pre-ordering the game each day in the end of april ^^

how do you know the bot send 200 messages an hour? Server bandwidth is somewhat limited, so maybe he just wait for someone to finish downloading until he sends another mail... ;)

[quote author=lukipuk link=topic=231.msg2042#msg2042 date=1223446815]
[quote author=Flexer link=topic=231.msg1989#msg1989 date=1223418728]
if the bot does 200 messages an hour, that means that it would do 33.3 messages in 10 minutes...
With this I can say that there were about 18-19 people pre-ordering the game each day in the end of april ^^

how do you know the bot send 200 messages an hour? Server bandwidth is somewhat limited, so maybe he just wait for someone to finish downloading until he sends another mail... ;)


That could also be true :)

I just took the figure from HexagonalBolts's post, so my calculations should be called derivative-unreliable :D

Ordered on May 16, go my download link today - 8th October Eastern Australia Time.

:) ;) :D ;D

Ordered 26th of March, got my link 14 hours ago.